making the largest contributions. The driving force behind educational reform will come from the new information economy's call for technologically fluent workers. Government will place more emphasis on the outcomes of public education (for example, America 2000). Improved pedagogy will revolutionize learning; learning environments will become less important as individuals will learn more on their own. Computer-supported approaches to learning will allow for more content-specific material to be learned. (Cetrone & Davies, 1994).
Biyernes, Setyembre 5, 2014
A consistent point brought up by most futurists is the need to provide education to both children and adults. The Special Libraries Association (SLA) believes that schools will become around the-clock facilities. The academic day will stretch to seven hours for children; adults will work a 32-hour week and prepare for their next job in the remaining hours. The SLA believes that new technology enhance these educational opportunities with job simulation stations, telecommunications course-work (distance education), 3-D graphics, and artificial intelligence
making the largest contributions. The driving force behind educational reform will come from the new information economy's call for technologically fluent workers. Government will place more emphasis on the outcomes of public education (for example, America 2000). Improved pedagogy will revolutionize learning; learning environments will become less important as individuals will learn more on their own. Computer-supported approaches to learning will allow for more content-specific material to be learned. (Cetrone & Davies, 1994).
making the largest contributions. The driving force behind educational reform will come from the new information economy's call for technologically fluent workers. Government will place more emphasis on the outcomes of public education (for example, America 2000). Improved pedagogy will revolutionize learning; learning environments will become less important as individuals will learn more on their own. Computer-supported approaches to learning will allow for more content-specific material to be learned. (Cetrone & Davies, 1994).
The Future of Education: Futurists' Views
It is no secret that our educational system is slow to adopting innovations. The old adage, "the
only constant in life is change," has rarely been applied to education. Gentry and Csete have
stated, "educators are slow to recognize the need to develop a curriculum that will prepare the
workforce for the demands they will face" (1990, pg. 25). Some would argue that change in
education will continue to be a dream unrealized well into the new millennium, but many opinions
run contrary to this argument.
In 1996, the American Association of School Administrators (AASA) brought together 55 advisors
from various fields, including education, business, government, psychology, sociology,
anthropology, and demography to study the future of education. A short summary of these
findings is (Ulchida, 1996):
Students need to be skilled in accessing the vast array of information available through
advanced technology and be able to process the information.
Students must know how to use computers and be familiar with various types of
technology.
Schools must incorporate "marketplace" technologies and ensure that new and emerging
technologies are incorporated into the school program.
If an association of school administrators believes emerging technologies need to be incorporated
into school programs then we can expect action on the subject.
It is no secret that our educational system is slow to adopting innovations. The old adage, "the
only constant in life is change," has rarely been applied to education. Gentry and Csete have
stated, "educators are slow to recognize the need to develop a curriculum that will prepare the
workforce for the demands they will face" (1990, pg. 25). Some would argue that change in
education will continue to be a dream unrealized well into the new millennium, but many opinions
run contrary to this argument.
In 1996, the American Association of School Administrators (AASA) brought together 55 advisors
from various fields, including education, business, government, psychology, sociology,
anthropology, and demography to study the future of education. A short summary of these
findings is (Ulchida, 1996):
Students need to be skilled in accessing the vast array of information available through
advanced technology and be able to process the information.
Students must know how to use computers and be familiar with various types of
technology.
Schools must incorporate "marketplace" technologies and ensure that new and emerging
technologies are incorporated into the school program.
If an association of school administrators believes emerging technologies need to be incorporated
into school programs then we can expect action on the subject.
One must keep in mind that there are countless ways technology might develop during the next several decades. Knowing exactly what these developments will be or where they will lead is not only impossible, it is unimportant. It is the recognition of what is possible that educators must consider. Social implications could possibly be the hardest of all to predict, yet it will be education that many will look to in dealing with these implications. Adequately preparing for these implications will only occur if we look ahead, which ultimately requires us to ask, what do members of the educational community see when they look ahead?
In the very near future we will have a keyboardless computer. Voice software is already proving to be effective in its implementation and it seems only a matter of years before the keyboard will be removed from many if not most computer environments. Computers are shrinking in size and are now wearable. For under $5,000 Xybernaut sells a powerful speech-activated computer (see Fig. 2). Taking this one step farther, although more difficult to implement than originally anticipated, voice translation technologies will allow for nearly instantaneous communication with people of different languages (Molitor, 1998). The business and educational implications are staggering. For example, what if American students could instantly communicate with Chinese students? Would this change education?
Also possible are body-implant transceivers, all connected to the Global Digital Network, or medical breakthroughs such as video lens implants, which are already allowing individuals who were once blind to regain partial sight! For any Star Trek fans reading this paper, it might sound like we are slowly turning into the Borg (see Fig. 3). If this creature walked into your classroom, how would you react? The idea might seem ludicrous, but the idea of students walking into class with Sony Walkmans, pagers, and cell phones was recently considered ludicrous as well. The technology might someday make unbelievable things possible. It is therefore important for teachers to work closely with technology designers "to create a world that celebrates and promotes humanity through the judicious use of technology" (Graham, 1997, pg. 14).
Gordon Moore believes that his Law will someday hit a wall: "Some time in the next several years we get to some finite limits, but not before we get through five generations" (in Kanellos, 1997). One study has shown that limitations could be reached by 2017. It does seem likely that we can assume growth to continue for several years to come. At current rates, by the time today's first and second graders graduate from high school, they will be using a computer that has 17,000 Megabytes of RAM, a HD of 12,000,000 Megabytes, a CPU speed of 5,500 Megahertz, and at a cost of less than $700. Extrapolating further is even more staggering.
We can hardly even begin to imagine what these computers will do. Metcalfe's Law combined with technology fusion should lead us to believe that we will have an increased reliance on a Global Digital Network, capable of sending and receiving any form of digital communication to and from anywhere in the world at any time. A global economy reliant on these emerging technologies is evidenced by current statistics. Still, we must ask what else is possible?
Future Technologies
If one lesson can be learned from our past it is to NOT put limits on what technology might someday produce. Assuming that ANYTHING is possible might be the best assumption. For
example, consider what happens when we begin to extrapolate Moore's Law 10 and 20 years into
the future (see Tab. 2 below)?
Moore's Law
1984 1990 1999 2009 2020
RAM (in Megabytes) 0.13 2 131 17000 2000000
HD (in Megabytes) 0.4 23 10000 12000000 14000000000
CPU (in MHz) 10 51 411 5500 75000
Cost $4,000.00 $2,600.00 $1,400.00 $670.00 $320.00
Table 2 - Moore's Law Extrapolated
The Future
Order Out of Chaos
Many factors or "wild cards" contribute to forecasting a possible future. Many futurists have likened these wild cards to the "butterfly effect" of chaos theory. The premise in the butterfly effect is that a butterfly flapping its wings in Singapore could cause a rippling effect that would eventually lead to a hurricane in the Caribbean. The premise behind chaos theory is that there can be order to chaos. The beauty of fractals is based upon this premise. Out of the chaos in today's world, we have found several trends: Moore's Law, Metcalfe's Law, technology fusion, and our technologically dependent world economy. We must finally ask where are these trends leading us and how might they impact education?
Order Out of Chaos
Many factors or "wild cards" contribute to forecasting a possible future. Many futurists have likened these wild cards to the "butterfly effect" of chaos theory. The premise in the butterfly effect is that a butterfly flapping its wings in Singapore could cause a rippling effect that would eventually lead to a hurricane in the Caribbean. The premise behind chaos theory is that there can be order to chaos. The beauty of fractals is based upon this premise. Out of the chaos in today's world, we have found several trends: Moore's Law, Metcalfe's Law, technology fusion, and our technologically dependent world economy. We must finally ask where are these trends leading us and how might they impact education?
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